Tutor:
OK, for this week's assignment you're going to assess the value survey on house prices.
Tutor:
What were the survey's findings?
Tutor:
Was it a reliable survey?
Tutor:
Work in pairs, discuss what you've read and generate some ideas for the assignment.
James:
Shall we work together, Anna?
Anna:
So, first, how did the value survey actually measure the cost of houses?
Anna:
Because there are lots of ways of calculating it.
James:
Well, it looked at all houses, didn't it?
James:
So it started with average incomes across the whole workforce and then worked out house prices in relation to that, I mean to what people were earning.
Anna:
So it's about affordability, what people pay in real terms.
Anna:
There's no information about the size of a house a typical family can buy.
James:
No, that's a limitation.
James:
OK, then in the assignment we should give some background.
James:
I mean, what's different about the value survey?
Anna:
Yeah, there's lots of these surveys every year.
Anna:
Value is actually one of the newer ones, but it stands out because it gives figures for a range of the largest urban centres, which none of the others do.
James:
Then one finding was that New Zealand houses are relatively expensive.
James:
Because most of them are built of wood, and that's quite cheap.
Anna:
But the problem is there are too many regulations and restrictions about where you can build.
James:
So if more building sites were created for housing, the costs would come down.
James:
That's it, isn't it?
James:
Because there are plenty of contractors ready to do the work.
James:
Well, what about transport?
James:
I mean, it's all very well to talk about new housing, but how are people going to get there?
James:
Is the survey proposing new roads, new rail networks?
James:
It should be a coordinated approach.
Anna:
Yeah, but the survey didn't mention it.
Anna:
It's a missed opportunity because a commitment to funding public transport from the outset would improve air quality in our cities.
James:
OK then, the next survey, what can we expect?
James:
It'll look at all the same places, right?
Anna:
But the next one will give an idea of the way prices are moving.
James:
The government may have to think about how house prices are affecting society.
Anna:
Then in the assignment, we need to evaluate how reliable the survey was, so we should look at some of the criticism made by commentators.
Anna:
OK, so there's the economist Andrew Coleman.
Anna:
He actually questioned whether the survey was money well spent because it only looked at a single year in isolation.
James:
A year when it was difficult to borrow money to buy a house, pushing up costs.
James:
So he thought the survey should consider a longer time frame.
James:
Did you get that article by Professor Massey?
James:
Because he's the leading authority on this topic.
Anna:
He realised the method used to calculate how much money people had didn't take savings into account.
Anna:
So actually, people looking for a house were richer than the survey shows, making houses cheaper in real terms.
James:
Alright, then Richard Bernard.
James:
His criticism was original.
James:
He found out they were using quite outdated software to process all the information they gathered, which was crazy because they actually had the money available for an upgrade.
James:
So even though it was a highly regarded team of people, the way the statistics were interpreted was open to question.
Anna:
OK, then Professor Lowndes.
Anna:
He thought the report was just badly written.
James:
After all the work that went into gathering valid information, the finished report was just too long and weakly structured.
James:
And there was too much unnecessary detail.
Anna:
And the last one, Maria Darling.
Anna:
She made a point about the properties that were evaluated.
James:
There weren't enough of them, you mean?
Anna:
No, it wasn't that.
Anna:
But they were never identified for privacy reasons.
Anna:
But she thought the actual properties used should have been revealed, you know.
Anna:
The process should have been transparent if the people are going to have full confidence in the survey.
James:
So a lot of criticism.
Anna:
But this sort of research is often controversial.
